Luglio 2002

BOLIVIAN VOTERS PUNISH UNITED STATES ARROGANCE

The presidential elections that took place in Bolivia last 30 June are likely to leave their mark not only on the near future of this Andean nation, but also on the dominant position of the United States government in Latin America. Evo Morales Ayma, the energetic leader of the movement of coca growers - who have suffered the US-led war on drugs of the past 15 years - obtained a surprising second place behind winner Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, a multimillionaire who already led the country between 1992 and 1997. As both candidates did not obtain more than 22 and 21 % respectively, a second round in the Bolivian parliament will decide later this month who will be the country’s new president. But no matter what happens, it is for sure that Bolivia will never be the same again. There are three reasons for this conclusion.
Firstly, the victory of Morales’ party, MAS (Movimiento al Socialismo - Movement Towards Socialism) may be considered as an outright defeat of US drug policy in Bolivia. In the aftermath of 11 September, US Ambassador Manuel Rocha accused the coca growers of nothing less then ‘narco-terrorism’, as they built blockades on roads to stop military troops invading their fields and eradicate coca. Earlier this year, when Morales announced his plan to run for presidency, Rocha said that his government would never concede him an entry visa. And three days before the elections took place, the Ambassador reminded Bolivians that the US would stop giving aid to Bolivia if they would elect a president who «wants Bolivia to become a major cocaine exporter again». The Embassy did not have any comment on the election results on July 1st. But there is no doubt that the US policy of considering coca growing peasants as enemies in the war on drugs, and issuing threats in the middle of an election campaign, has had counterproductive results. Even if Morales will not be the next president of Bolivia, it seems the times of massive operation of forced coca erradication are over. This could open the eyes of Colombian and Peruvian authorities, who are desperately trying to de-link the repressive approach from their policy towards coca cultivation.
Secondly, the success of MAS and one other indigenous party, MIP (Movimiento Indigenista Pachacuti Indigenous Movement Pachacuti) have brought the ethnic issue into the political debate. Two thirds of Bolivia’s population of 8 million consists of indigenous people who are largely underrepresented in the political and economic establishment. Both parties have announced profound reforms of Bolivian society, in accordance with traditional patterns of organisation that are used already on a local level by Aymara and Quechua communities. In order to avoid that scenario, the established political parties formed by the white minority will have to form a coalition, which will undoubtedly be conceived as non-indigenous. More than ever, this coalition will have to respond to the demands of the indigenous population, taking into account the capacity of both MAS and MIP to organise social uprising. The example of the Bolivian coca growers, who survived violent repression during the past 15 years, may serve as a warning for the future Bolivian government.
In relation to this, the outcome of the elections also means a striking blow to the liberal economic model which has been implemented in the country following the receipts of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank since 1985. Morales made no secret of his plans to return to the state its role as a promotor of national development, establishing control mechanisms to avoid the sell out of crucial economic resources such as minerals, gas and oil to private, often transnational companies. Also if the future president is called Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, himself a mine owner, he will have to be extremely careful continuing the practice of privatisation, as the popular support for Morales will be likely to increase even more.
In order to survive during the coming years, the political and economic powers in Bolivia will have to take into account the needs of the Bolivian people, just as the future US Ambassador (Manuel Rocha is leaving next month) will have to find another way of dealing with the Bolivian coca growers.

Joep Oomen

EUROPEAN NGO COUNCIL ON DRUGS AND DEVELOPMENT
http://www.encod.org/